Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 13 college football projections
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Sunday Morning Coffee
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week's previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 13:
| Date | Away | Home | CW Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21 | Kent St. | Akron | AKR -11 |
| Nov 21 | Miami Ohio | Ball St. | BALL +15.5 |
| Nov 21 | Bowling Green | E. Michigan | EMU -17 |
| Nov 23 | Ole Miss | Mississippi St. | MSST -15 |
| Nov 24 | Missouri | Arkansas | ARK +6.5 |
| Nov 24 | Ohio | Buffalo | BUFF +3.5 |
| Nov 24 | Northern Illinois | C. Michigan | CMCH +3 |
| Nov 24 | Western Kentucky | FIU | FIU +3 |
| Nov 24 | Navy | Houston | HOU -5 |
| Nov 24 | Iowa | Nebraska | NEB +0 |
| Nov 24 | Oregon St. | Oregon | ORE -19 |
| Nov 24 | Miami | Pittsburgh | PITT +13.5 |
| Nov 24 | New Mexico | San Diego St. | SDSU -16.5 |
| Nov 24 | Baylor | TCU | TCU -23 |
| Nov 24 | Texas Tech | Texas | TEX -9.5 |
| Nov 24 | Western Michigan | Toledo | TOL -11.5 |
| Nov 24 | Texas St. | Troy | TROY -27 |
| Nov 24 | South Florida | UCF | UCF -8 |
| Nov 24 | California | UCLA | UCLA -7 |
| Nov 24 | Virginia Tech | Virginia | UVA +8 |
| Nov 25 | USU | Air Force | AFA -4.5 |
| Nov 25 | Arizona | Arizona St. | ASU 0 |
| Nov 25 | Alabama | Auburn | AUB +4.5 |
| Nov 25 | Florida Atlantic | Charlotte | CHAR +22 |
| Nov 25 | UConn | Cincinnati | CIN -9.5 |
| Nov 25 | Florida St. | Florida | FLA +5 |
| Nov 25 | Boise St. | Fresno St. | FRES +8.5 |
| Nov 25 | Appalachian St. | Georgia St. | GST +7 |
| Nov 25 | Georgia | Georgia Tech | GT +11 |
| Nov 25 | BYU | Hawaii | HAW +5 |
| Nov 25 | Northwestern | Illinois | ILL +13.5 |
| Nov 25 | Iowa St. | Kansas St. | KSU 0 |
| Nov 25 | Louisville | Kentucky | UK +10.5 |
| Nov 25 | UTSA | LA Tech | LT -0.5 |
| Nov 25 | Texas A&M | LSU | LSU -11 |
| Nov 25 | Southern Miss | Marshall | MRSH -1 |
| Nov 25 | Penn St. | Maryland | MD +21 |
| Nov 25 | East Carolina | Memphis | MEM -25 |
| Nov 25 | Ohio St. | Michigan | MICH +8.5 |
| Nov 25 | Old Dominion | Middle Tenn. | MTSU -10.5 |
| Nov 25 | Wisconsin | Minnesota | MINN +13.5 |
| Nov 25 | UNLV | Nevada | NEV -2 |
| Nov 25 | Idaho | New Mexico St. | NMSU -5.5 |
| Nov 25 | North Carolina | NC State | NCST -14.5 |
| Nov 25 | West Virginia | Oklahoma | OKLA -15.5 |
| Nov 25 | Kansas | Oklahoma St. | OKST -36.5 |
| Nov 25 | Indiana | Purdue | PUR -1 |
| Nov 25 | North Texas | Rice | RICE +12 |
| Nov 25 | Michigan St. | Rutgers | RUTG +13.5 |
| Nov 25 | Wyoming | San Jose St. | SJSU +19.5 |
| Nov 25 | Tulane | SMU | SMU -5.5 |
| Nov 25 | Clemson | South Carolina | SC +15 |
| Nov 25 | Notre Dame | Stanford | STAN +0 |
| Nov 25 | Boston College | Syracuse | SYR +2.5 |
| Nov 25 | Vanderbilt | Tennessee | TENN -0.5 |
| Nov 25 | Temple | Tulsa | TLSA +5 |
| Nov 25 | UTEP | UAB | UAB -20.5 |
| Nov 25 | Georgia Southern | ULL | ULL -6.5 |
| Nov 25 | Arkansas St. | ULM | ULM +7.5 |
| Nov 25 | Colorado | Utah | UTAH -10 |
| Nov 25 | Duke | Wake Forest | WF -9.5 |
| Nov 25 | Washington St. | Washington | WASH -10 |
| Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook/Hangover watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site | |||
Notes
- Excluding teams in the Sun Belt Conference, this will be the final game of the regular season. Overlook applies in some spots for teams that have clinched a division. These teams may pack it in for Week 13 in preparation for a conference championship game. These games include ACC Coastal winner Miami at Pittsburgh, Conference USA East winner Florida Atlantic at Charlotte, East Carolina at AAC West winner Memphis, Big Ten West winner Wisconsin at Minnesota, and Conference USA West winner North Texas at Rice.
- There are a few teams still competing for a chance at a bowl game while taking on teams that have been eliminated from the postseason. This includes UNLV at Nevada, Temple at Tulsa, New Mexico State hosting Idaho, and ULL hosting Georgia Southern.
- The Iron Bowl will be the marquee game of the week. The same advanced stats that led us to fade Alabama in Week 11 apply here with Auburn. The Tide rank 96th in rush defense Power Success Rate, which measures conversions on third/fourth and short situations. War Eagle's offense ranks 12th in rush Power Success Rate, and should convert against the Tide front seven. Another area of concern is the adjusted sack rate. Auburn should be in the backfield all day, ranking eighth in the country, while Alabama's offensive line ranks 105th.
- Keep your eye on the Apple Cup between Washington State and Washington. While the Huskies are projected ton by double digits, a Wazzu upset sends the Cougs to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The kickoff has been set for 5 p.m. PST, the same time slot as Notre Dame at Stanford. If the Huskies win the Apple Cup, Stanford will head to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Second half bets will be monitored in favor of the Irish if the Huskies have a large lead on Wazzu.
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