Week 12 college football futures betting watch: Two-loss bonanza

The College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its top 25 every Tuesday until the conference championships. The Action Network will bring you the latest CFP rankings along with power ratings, current futures odds and some chatter about the paths of the potential teams involved throughout the remainder of the season.

Updated Odds – November 14th

SEC

Alabama struggled to control the line of scrimmage against Mississippi State and failed to cover. Despite the defensive issues, the Tide move to No. 1 in the CFP rankings. The SEC entry is clear, with Alabama visiting No. 6 Auburn in Week 13 and the winner moving on to the SEC Championship Game against No. 7 Georgia. The Tide deserve special consideration for price watch, as they opened -125 and have moved to +120 in some spots. Alabama could still lose to Auburn or Georgia and take the No. 4 seed in the final CFP ranking. Personally, I will wait until that loss comes to invest in the Crimson Tide.

ACC

The ACC Championship Game is set, and the winner will more than likely take a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the final CFP ranking. No. 3 Miami could have a letdown at home against Virginia or even next week against Pitt, but it would not affect their shot at a national title if they win the conference. With a loss to Syracuse earlier this season, No. 2 Clemson cannot afford a letdown in games remaining with The Citadel and South Carolina.

PAC-12

No. 11 USC wrapped up the Pac-12 South with a victory over Colorado. Their opponent could be Stanford, Washington State or Washington. If No.22 Stanford defeats Cal this weekend (likely as 16-point favorites), then No. 18 Washington is eliminated from the conference championship. No. 14 Washington State controls their own destiny to the Pac-12 title, but must win as a dog in the Apple Cup. Any shot at the Trojans making the playoff require a boost in strength of schedule in the conference championship, and plenty of Team Chaos in the other Power Five leagues.

BIG TEN

Does No. 5 Wisconsin hold the keys as the only hope in the Big Ten for a chance at the CFP? No. 9 Ohio State needs a number of dominoes to fall to rise into the top four. The Buckeyes need to win out in games against Illinois and No. 24 Michigan. With Notre Dame not having a conference championship, the Buckeyes are leading the two-loss charge for the playoff.

BIG 12

Boomer!! No. 4 Oklahoma is on track for a playoff appearance with Kansas, West Virginia and the Big 12 Championship left to play. The Sooners exposed No. 12 TCU with plenty of explosiveness, just as they did against No.13 Oklahoma State. In a repeat game scheduled for Arlington, Oklahoma should have no problem exposing the Big 12 defenses that can't limit explosiveness.

Group of Five

The CFP selection committee has Central Florida ranked No. 15 and Memphis No. 21. The Group of Five is essentially out of the running for the CFP, and we can only wonder what UCF's resume would have looked like with a Georgia Tech victory instead of allowing Austin Peay to score 33.

Week 12 Add:  Pass

This assumes you have followed all the future recommendations since Week 7. If you are just now jumping in the game, I would propose Clemson +725. The Tigers are back on track after a Friday night loss at Syracuse where Kelly Bryant did not play the full game due to injury. Clemson has The Citadel and South Carolina left on the schedule before taking on Miami. The current line on the ACC Championship is Clemson -6.5. I am not positive the Hurricanes don't drop a meaningless game against Virginia or after Thanksgiving at Pitt. Look for that ACC Championship spread to never be better than -6.5, thus increasing the probability Clemson enters the playoff as a top-two seed.

Futures Summary

Week 7: Virginia Tech 100-1
Week 8: Wisconsin 25-1
Week 9: Georgia 12-1
Week 10: Clemson 13-1
Week 11: USC 100-1
Week 12:  Pass (Clemson +725)

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