Astros vs Tigers Odds & Prediction: Bet the Friday Underdog

Though Framber Valdez continues to induce ground balls at an exceptional rate, the veteran lefty for the Astros has not been as sharp since 2023. He's not really the type to overpower hitters, but it seems the higher his Average Exit Velocity gets, the less success he has, no matter how many grounders he can force.

He'll be facing Casey Mize and the Tigers on Friday. Mize is finally coming into his own and has been able to maintain a high ground-ball rate.

These two starting pitchers are shockingly similar, but Detroit's offense could be problematic for Valdez, as it hits amongst the fewest grounders in MLB.

Astros vs Tigers odds for Friday have the Astros as -148 moneyline favorites, with an /over under of 8 (-110o / -110u). Find my MLB betting preview for the series opener — and my Astros vs Tigers prediction — below.

Valdez maintains a groundball rate in the 94th percentile with an Average Exit Velocity of 91.6 MPH. Similarly, his Hard Hit Rate is also below average. Nonetheless, he has managed to get away with these discouraging metrics with how often he keeps the ball on the ground. One issue he's had this season is a decrease in strikeout rate. His xERA has been above his ERA for some time, but a 4.48 xERA is his highest mark since 2019.

The Astros have crushed righties despite all of their limitations this year. They have nine hitters above a .320 xwOBA against righties, including both catchers.

The Houston bullpen, though, is one of the worst in baseball. Their xFIP is 4.32 with a walk rate over 10%. They do have three arms below a 4.00 xFIP, but if Valdez allows hard contact in the air at all, Detroit could force him to exit early.

Mize has been eerily similar to Valdez, owning a 90.9 Average Exit Velocity and below average Hard Hit Rate. However, he also forces opponents to keep the ball on the ground. He also walks far fewer batters than his counterpart, but also strikes out fewer. That said, both his ERA and xERA are below 4.00, so this could be more indicative of future success, instead of negative regression.

The Tigers own a 97 wRC+ off of lefties this year. They have six hitters eclipsing a .330 xwOBA, not including Riley Greene, who comes in at .307. Much of this lineup can excel against a lefty, so Valdez may be a favorable matchup for the Detroit hitters. Additionally, the Tigers rarely ground the ball, ranking second lowest in groundball rate, which is ideal coming up against a pitcher like Valdez. This should give the Tigers an added bonus against Houston.

Detroit doesn't have the best bullpen, either, but it is better as a unit than Houston. The Tigers have a 4.06 xFIP and walk rate over 9%. However, Joey Wentz, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Will Vest, Alex Faedo, and Alex Lange all have an xFIP below 4.20. This bullpen is just much deeper than Houston’s, even if some of its arms have struggled at times.

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As underdogs, the Tigers hold value against a weak Houston team. While Houston has hit righties well, Detroit is one of the only lineups who matches up well with a groundball pitcher like Valdez.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline +115 (Bet to -105)