MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Odds & Model Picks Today
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Erick Fedde (White Sox)
We finally had the big day we've been hoping for on Wednesday, going 4-1 (with one game rained out) for just under three units of profit. That brings the season record to 77-58 for just under 15 units of return.
Here's two MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Thursday, May 9, with most MLB teams getting the day off.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco vs. Marcus Stroman
Two of my favorite YRFI teams meet in this series, with some of baseball's best hitters getting guaranteed first inning at bats.
The total is somewhat low at 8.5 runs, thanks to both pitchers coming into the game with low ERAs.
However, both have been worse overall based on xERA and xFIP. Crucially, their first time through the order xFIPs are much less impressive at 4.68 (Stroman) and 5.79 (Blanco), respectively. Some of that ERA regression should hit today based on the difficult matchups for both pitchers.
Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively vs. Erick Fedde
This is another game where we have a slight risk on one team, and the other is extremely unlikely to score in the first inning.
The unlikely-to-score team is of course the White Sox, who have the worst offense in baseball. Not a single hitter in their lineup has an above average wRC+ this year.
Cleveland is the riskier side, but it's implied for just over four total runs in the game and has a somewhat difficult matchup against Erick Fedde. Since returning from overseas this season, Fedde has a 3.46 ERA with similar xERA and xFIP numbers. His ERA also gets much better his first time through the order, dropping to 1.20.
I'd blindly bet almost any NRFI at this price if I knew one team wasn't going to score, but it's even better when the riskier team has a difficult matchup.
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