MLB Predictions Thursday | Picks, Odds, Previews (May 9)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, May 9.

MLB Predictions Thursday | Picks, Odds, Previews (May 9)

Keaton Winn (SF) vs. Cal Quantrill (COL)

According to wRC+, the Rockies have had the worst offense in baseball over the past two seasons against both righties (78 wRC+; White Sox at 79) and lefties (74 wRC+; White Sox at 83) — yet we're seeing more totals of 9.5 at Coors Field.

Temperatures will be in the 50s, and the wind is blowing in (6 mph from center field), but I'd still set this number closer to 10.

The Action Labs Pro system for Windy Unders — which I also included below in the Astros-Yankees writeup — triggered for this matchup. However, the totals are 55-53-5 to the Over when that system fits the characteristics at Coors Field.

I'm high on Keaton Winn and his devastating splitter (126 Stuff+), but he's posted a below-average 13.9% strikeout-minus walk rate (K-BB%) across 16 MLB appearances.

And among the 137 starters who have tossed at least 100 innings over the past two seasons, Cal Quantrill ranks 136th with a 5.7% K-BB%. Given the high number of balls in play, Quantrill seems like a nightmarish fit for Coors Field, which has a 116 park factor for base hits (114 for singles; highest in MLB vs. 109 for homers, 9th).

I'd expect Quantrill's ERA to regress toward his 2024 FIP (5.01) and projections (projected FIP range of 4.99 to 5.28).

Bet: Over 9.5 (-108 or better)

Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs. Marcus Stroman (NYY)

Despite its reputation as a hitter-friendly park due to its short porch in right field, Yankee Stadium has had a Park Factor of 96 over the past four seasons, which is 4% below the MLB average run-scoring environment.

Pitchers should benefit from Thursday's conditions — 63 degrees at first pitch, with 7 mph winds blowing in from center field — lowering my total from about 8.55 on a weather-neutral day to 8.27 for Thursday's matchup.

The weather triggered the following Action Labs Pro system for wind, which has generated a 5.5% ROI since 2005:

Since 2019 (sports betting legalization), the same system has a 53.3% win rate, with a 2.7% ROI.

There are some concerning signs in Marcus Stroman's profile. The 33-year-old has a career-high 12.4% walk rate and a 9.3% K-BB%, his lowest mark since 2018. His pitch modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 93 Location+) are down significantly compared to last season (101 and 100, respectively) with the Cubs.

That said, Stroman is limiting hard contact (32.7% hard-hit rate, his lowest mark since 2015), and his expected ERA (4.23) aligns with his 2023 results (4.27 xERA) and 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.30).

Like Stroman, Ronel Blanco (2.09 ERA, 2.48 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 13.2% K-BB%) also has limited hard contact (31.3%) despite permitting a high number of walks (10.5%). Additionally, pitching models aren't high on Blanco's arsenal (96 Stuff+, 98 Location+), and his projections (projected range of 4.38 to 4.76) aren't as optimistic as those for Stroman.

Bet: Under 9 or Under 8.5 (+100 or better)

Sonny Gray (STL) vs. Tobias Myers (MIL)

Sonny Gray, who was supposed to pitch at home against the Mets on Wednesday before a rainout, will take Lance Lynn's spot in Game One of an essential four-game divisional set against the first-place Brewers.

Despite a 3.28 ERA, Lance Lynn is showing his worst indicators since the 2017 season — just after he returned from Tommy John surgery. Lynn's strikeout rate (20.9%), K-BB% (10.8%), fastball velocity (91.7 mph) and swinging strike rate (10.6%) are each at seven-year lows. His Stuff+ rating has declined from 92 to 82, year over year.

Conversely, Gray shows career-best data points through five starts. His 28.9% K-BB% (17% in 2023 and 15.2% career), 33.3% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, 12.8% swinging-strike rate and 31.8% called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) each represent a career-best. And his fastball velocity (93.3 mph) is at its highest point since the 2020 season — the only time he posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in his career.

He gives the Cardinals a substantial pitching advantage for the first five innings (F5).

Tobias Myers doesn't look like anything special for the Brewers. He's flashed a pair of above-average pitches (108 Stuff+ on his changeup and 105 on his cutter), but his projections (projected FIP range of 4.72 to 4.85) approximate Lynn's late-career level of effectiveness, and point toward a likely future as a bullpen piece.

Both teams have their high-leverage arms available — however, the Cardinals likely have the two best relievers in this contest (JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley). They also had an unexpected day of rest on Wednesday.

Bet: Cardinals F5 Moneyline (-110 or better) | Under 8.5 (-117 or better) 

Ben Lively (CLE) vs. Erick Fedde (CWS)

Ben Lively struggled in his return from the KBO last season (5.38 ERA, 5.03 xERA, 4.42 xFIP, 14.1% K-BB%), but he has posted a career-best 28.6% strikeout rate and 21.4% K-BB% in 2024 — both marks are 10% above his career averages.

Lively is throwing his sinker more frequently (32.6%, up from 22% last season) and showing better command than last year, but his Stuff+ ratings remain in the 70s, and his slider remains his only above-average pitch. His 27.5 CSW% also aligns with last season (27%). I'm not sure if this new level of performance (3.66 xERA, 3.31 xFIP) is sustainable, but I do like Lively to beat his ERA projections (projected range of 4.48 to 4.87) with Cleveland's elite defense behind him.

Erick Fedde has looked effective in his return from the KBO, where he won the Choi Dong-won Award (their Cy Young equivalent) and league MVP honors, following a dominant campaign for the NC Dinos (20-6, 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24.6% K-BB%).

Pitch modeling metrics like his slider (131 Stuff+) and new-found splitter (113 Stuff+).

Fedde (101 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 115 Pitching+) is significantly improved over his 2022 form for the Nationals (80 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 93 Pitching+), and can continue to pitch to his 2024 indicators (3.46 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 3.74 xFIP).

Bet: Under 8 (-102 or better)

Michael Wacha (KC) vs. Reid Detmers (LAA)

Michael Wacha is a league-average arm (5.50 ERA, 4.44 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 12.8% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+) who will look to eat innings on Thursday after the Royals used six relievers to seal a series win over the Brewers.

Closer James McArthur and lefty Angel Zerpa threw for consecutive days, while Tyler Duffey and Will Smith pitched for the third time in five days. An appearance from either Chris Stratton or Nick Anderson on Thursday would mark their third in four days.

Reid Detmers remains enigmatic, posting a career-best 18.2% K-BB% while permitting 16 runs in his last 17 2/3 innings. Detmers is throwing his changeup more often this season (16.3%, up from 5.5% last year) at the expense of his slider (down 11.1%) and curveball (down 3.4%).

His velocity is down slightly, and his Stuff+ numbers have also declined (101 last season, 97 in 2024) since his slider is a touch worse (down from 124 Stuff+ to 115).

I set Thursday's total at 8.95 runs.

Bet: Over 8.5 (-108 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, May 9

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• Arizona Diamondbacks / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)
• Cleveland Guardians / Chicago White Sox, Under 8 (-102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -102)
• Houston Astros / New York Yankees, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 8.5, +100)
• Kansas City Royals / Los Angeles Angels, Over 8.5 (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -108)
• San Francisco Giants / Colorado Rockies, Over 9.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (Bet to -108)
• St. Louis Cardinals F5 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
• St. Louis Cardinals / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -117)

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