Joe Dellera

Joe Dellera's Picks

Today
Donte got a bit of his rhythm back in Game 6 when he scored 17 points with three made 3s. It was a significant bounce back from his 7 and 8 point performances in Games four and five. In Game 7 he should get as much run as he can handle, especially with Josh Hart ailing. Even if Hart and OG Anunoby are able to play, their roles are not ones that necessarily would encroach on Donte’s minutes. Donte is giving the Knicks valuable minutes but he also is getting the volume in return. In Games 4, 5, 6 he barely saw minutes in the 4th Quarter - some due to poor performance and some due to blowouts. Despite that, he still took 13, 14, and 14 shots. He has taken at least 13 shots in every game during this series. When he has taken 13 shots this season, he has scored at least 18 points in 71% of games while averaging 22.4. I expect Donte to maintain this volume, and with Indiana trying to force the ball out of Jalen Brunson’s hands, he should see plenty of opportunities.
169
30
I don’t think OG would be playing if he was less than 80%.
57
10
We ride into the night
4
Pending
Jamal Murray to Lead the Series in Assists R2+900
1.25u
5/2/24
24
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Series 3000s Leader+3000
0.2u
Series 3s Leader My Player Props Forecast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves-player-prop-forecast
26
15
Rudy Gobert Series Rebound Leader R2+175
1u
Play down to +140 My Forecast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves-player-prop-forecast
36
11
Jamal Murray Series Assists Leader R2+3000
0.2u
Bet after Game 1
43
12
Nikola Jokic under 9.1 APG R2-115
1u
Bet After Game 1
95
15
Myles Turner R2 Series 3s Leader+3500
0.5u
Teasing my Player Prop Forecast - would play down to 16/1
21
11
Aaron Nesmith R2 Series 3s Leader+5000
0.5u
My Forecast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
39
13
Tyrese Haliburton Series Assists Leader R2-125
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
19
10
TJ McConnell Series Assists Leader+5000
0.05u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
22
12
Josh Hart Series Assists Leader R2+25000
0.05u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
21
10
Josh Hart to Record 10+ Rebounds in Every Game of Series R2+170
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
50
16
Jalen Brunson to Score 50+ Points in Any Game of Series+260
0.5u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
47
16
Jalen Brunson to Score 25+ in Every Game of Series R2+190
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
63
20
Jalen Brunson to Score 35+ Points in Every Game of Series R2 +2300
0.1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/indiana-pacers-vs-new-york-knicks-player-prop-forecast
41
12
Isaiah Hartenstein over 8.4 rebounds per game R2-115
1u
Bet before Game 2
25
14
Best Bets: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-expert-picks-for-knicks-vs-pacers-nuggets-vs-timberwolves
59
8
Rudy has been a polarizing figure throughout this entire series as people have questioned just how impactful his defense has been in defending Jokic and the Nuggets; however, he can make his presence felt on both sides of the floor. Gobert has functioned as a floater defensively and gets to grab a few additional rebounds because of it. Also, on the offensive side of the ball, he has been an effective roll man with either Ant or Mike Conley. One the things Denver is giving up to Gobert in his two-man game is the ability to dish. This series he has averaged 2 assists per game on 3.6 potentials with at least one in each game. It gives a nice floor for this prop with some additional upside as he has had 3, 1, 1, 3, and 2 assists in these games. As for the PRA, he has an excellent history against Jokic. Over his last 10 head-to-head games he has exceeded 23.5 PRA in seven of them including three in a row. This is a winner-take-all Game 7 and Gobert should see plenty of run. I like him to exceed 23.5 PRA
110
22
Northwest Division - Winner of NBA Finals+300
3u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-title-odds-championship-value-bets
17
Atlantic Division - Winning Division of NBA Finals+225
3u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-title-odds-championship-value-bets
15
Jalen Brunson over 28.7 Playoff ppg-110
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-forecast-round-one-of-the-eastern-conference
6
7
Jayson Tatum over 8.1 Playoff RPG-110
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-forecast-round-one-of-the-eastern-conference
7
7
Anthony Edwards under 25.9 Playoff PPG-110
1u
6
9
SGA under 30.1 Playoff PPG-110
1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-forecast-round-one-of-the-western-conference
5
7
Jokic over 26.4 ppg for Postseason-125
2u
16
Futures
Miami Heat (No)+575
2023-24 NBA To Make The Playoffs
1u
9/27/23, after Dame news
21
9
Denver Nuggets+800
2023-24 NBA Championship - To Win
0.25u
DK Odds Surge
12
9
Minnesota Timberwolves+4000
2023-24 NBA Championship - To Win
0.5u
11/13/23 Gave this out on Buckets preseason at 80/1 but will log here at the current price. Forgot to log earlier
19
8
Clay Holmes+4000
2024 MLB Most Regular Season Saves
0.25u
Via @TurveyBets
14
Michael Harris+15000
2024 MLB Most Regular Season Hits
0.15u
Via @TurveyBets
16
Grayson Rodriguez+3000
2024 MLB American League Cy Young
0.25u
Via @TurveyBets
17
Golden State Warriors+7000
2023-24 NBA Championship - To Win
0.5u
2/12/24: gave this out on Buckets. Rivers had an 80/1 but I can’t get down there Talked about it at length on buckets but basically very easy schedule, excellent with Draymond back as a starter and Kerr benching Klay down the stretch and closing with Kuminga shows he’s making the tough choices
82
28
Past Performance
Yesterday3-1-075%
1.13u
Last 7 Days13-22-037%
-3.71u
Last 30 Days58-106-035%
-12.29u
All Time3127-3715-11345%
186.38u
Top Leagues
NBA2288-2780-9344%
171.47u
WNBA64-65-149%
6.85u
MLB465-423-1052%
6.32u
NFL203-267-643%
2.37u
NCAAB56-53-051%
1.09u
UFL0-1-00%
-0.10u
World Cup0-1-00%
-0.15u
ATP1-2-033%
-0.17u
UFC0-2-00%
-0.40u
Golf0-6-00%
-0.80u
NASCAR2-16-011%
-0.97u
NHL8-17-032%
-1.39u
NCAAF16-21-043%
-1.76u