PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Back Mariners’ Logan Gilbert (Thursday, May 9)

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Logan Gilbert has strung together a Cy Young-worthy beginning to his season for the Mariners. With a 1.69 ERA, he’s racked up 50 strikeouts in 48 innings and a pristine 3-0 record.

The righty has really popped on Fangraphs’ Stuff+ model, with a 121 overall mark while each of his five main pitches have registered above a 100. This includes his newest pitch, a cutter (130 Stuff+), and his slider (139) – both ranking amongst the top pitches in baseball this season.

Adding the cutter to his arsenal has seemingly unlocked Gilbert from a strikeout perspective. His 29.4% plus swinging strike rate exceeds his previous season high by more than 2%. And Gilbert is generating swings and misses in the 78th percentile this season.

The results have yielded at least six strikeouts in each of his seven starts, and he’s cleared this line in four of those outings.

While the Twins' strikeout numbers are down after their disastrous start (18.5% K% over the last two weeks against righties), the resurgence can be tied into the fact that they’ve faced some underwhelming pitching staffs of late (two series' against the White Sox and one against the Angels).

Overall, the Twins collectively have a 29% strikeout rate against power pitchers (per baseball reference; defined as pitchers in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks). I believe that’s a strong indicator for Gilbert today.

And even though the Twins’ bats have been scorching hot of late, Gilbert has tamed some of baseball’s best offenses so far this season.

I have the Mariner projected at seven strikeouts today.

Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114) | Play to -110