Cavaliers vs Celtics Props Tuesday | Game 1 NBA Expert Pick (May 7)

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Cavaliers vs Celtics Props Tuesday | Game 1 NBA Expert Pick (May 7)

Darius Garland stayed under this number in four of the seven games against the Magic in the opening series. However, based on his underlying passing metrics, I think he's due for some regressions.

Garland's teammates shot 54% on his potential assists during the regular season, but shot 57% on his potential assists during the seven games against Orlando.

We should expect that to take a bit of a hit going forward, especially against the Celtics, who allow the fifth-lowest assist rate per 100 possessions.

Garland's pass rate took a big hit in the opening series. He averages 1.6 passes per minute during the regular season, but it was just 1.2 against the Magic.

The number of potential assists he will be able to have during the playoffs will be much lower if that trend continues and he's due for his teammates to covert on fewer of them.

I'm projecting Garland with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5 assists tonight.

Pick: Darius Garland Under 5.5 Assists (-106)